Mizuho International Research Hub

Mizuho International's recent research emphasizes a global macro environment defined by the convergence of persistent inflation, central bank policy uncertainty, and heightened geopolitical volatility. Across the US, UK, and Eurozone, sovereign bond markets remain under pressure as investors navigate hawkish stances from the Fed and ECB against the backdrop of potential stagflationary shocks. US Treasuries are particularly sensitive to data-dependent rate repricing, while European and Gilt markets are grappling with both heavy supply schedules and domestic economic headwinds. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to drive oil price spikes, effectively complicating the inflation outlook and limiting potential rallies in risk assets. Meanwhile, regional divergences are emerging, with the JPY responding to specific Bank of Japan policy signals and domestic wage trends. Ultimately, the institution’s research underscores a cautious sentiment, where central bank communication and upcoming labor data remain critical catalysts for determining the trajectory of global rates and risk positioning.