Report published June 2, 2026
FX Daily: Markets Reluctant to Price in More JPY Interventions
ING · June 2, 2026
FX volatility remains exceptionally low globally while USD/JPY tests 160, signaling potential underpricing of intervention risk. Meanwhile, rising Eurozone inflation and steady Polish rates keep regional focus on central bank hawkishness.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Market participants are underestimating the risk of Japanese FX intervention as USD/JPY approaches the 160 mark, despite very low implied volatility.
- 2.Global FX volatility is exceptionally low, with the CVIX index falling below 6.0.
- 3.Eurozone inflation data is expected to show a tick up in both headline (3.2%) and core (2.4%) figures, supporting ECB hawkishness.
Table of Contents
- USD: Volatility remains exceptionally low
- EUR: Eurozone core CPI starts creeping up
- JPY: Risk of new interventions a bit underpriced
- PLN: NBP can wait a bit longer
- Author
Report data
USD/JPY is retesting 160.0
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| CVIX index | 6.0 | Lowest level since March 2024. |
| Eurozone Flash Inflation | 3.2% | Forecasted to rise from 3.0%. |
| NBP Base Rate | 3.75% | Expected policy decision today. |
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