Executive Briefing

Danske Bank reports a volatile month for oil and divergent macro trends, where resilient US IT investment contrasts with Eurozone growth contraction. Consequently, both the Fed and ECB are projected to hike interest rates to address persistent inflation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Oil market volatility persists due to the Strait of Hormuz conflict, with markets pricing in a very gradual normalization over several years.
• 2.Both the ECB and the Fed are expected to hike interest rates; the ECB to prevent rising long-term inflation expectations and the Fed to combat persistent inflation above target.
• 3.Global equity performance remains exceptionally narrow, driven almost exclusively by technology and the AI investment cycle.

Table of Contents

• Lack of clarity on oil situation and its inflation effect
• Key points
• Denmark
• Sweden
• Norway
• Finland
• Currency markets
• Bond markets
• Credit markets
• Equities
• Macroeconomic forecast
• Financial forecast