Nordic Outlook

The June 2026 Nordic Outlook focuses on the economic ripples from the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has spiked oil prices to $100/bbl. While growth is slowing globally, central banks are prioritized with rate hikes to contain potential second-round inflation effects.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a ~50% spike in oil prices, becoming the primary driver of global economic uncertainty.
• 2.Central banks, including the ECB and Fed, are expected to react to energy-driven inflation with interest rate hikes to anchor expectations.
• 3.The US economy shows unexpected resilience driven by an AI investment boom and fiscal support, even as households face cooling real income growth.

Table of Contents

• Summary
• Global
• Euro area
• US
• China
• Nordic summary
• Denmark
• Sweden
• Norway
• Finland
• Forecast tables

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