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Danske Bank

June 11, 2026

ECB Review

Macro ThematicRates Govt BondsMacro Economic IndicatorsOther

The ECB hiked rates by 25bp to 2.25% in June, maintaining a hawkish outlook to combat inflation risks. Danske Bank now anticipates a second hike in September.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The ECB hiked policy rates by 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%, citing inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict.
  • 2.Danske Bank expects a second rate hike in September rather than July due to disappointing recent growth data.

Table of Contents

  • ECB Review
  • New staff projections were revised more hawkishly than we expected
  • Markets price only 25% chance of hike in July
  • Disclosures
  • Analyst certification
  • Regulation
  • Conflicts of interest
  • Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report
  • Risk warning
  • Expected updates
  • Date of first publication
  • General disclaimer
  • Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States
  • Disclaimer related to distribution in the United Kingdom
  • Disclaimer related to distribution in the European Economic Area

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Authors

Rune Thyge JohansenKirstine Kundby-Nielsen

Securities

Euro Short-Term Rate

Themes

Inflationary PressureHawkish Monetary Policy

Regions

EuropeMiddle EastIrelandIran