US Rate Forecast Update

Crédit Agricole has revised US rate forecasts upward due to US-Iran war-induced inflation risks and a more hawkish Fed stance. The report expects the 2Y Treasury to trade around 4.15% near-term with the Fed on hold through 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Inflation concerns stemming from the US-Iran war have increased the Treasury term premium, leading to upward pressure on rates.
• 2.The Fed has shifted from an easing bias toward considering rate hikes, with the house view projecting an extended hold throughout 2026.
• 3.Near-term forecasts place the 2Y Treasury yield between 4.00% and 4.15% until geopolitical tensions ease.

Table of Contents

• US rate forecast update
• Less negative swap spreads
• Interest Rates Research advanced tools
• Red Mount Analytics
• Global Markets Research contact details
• Certification
• Disclaimer

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial