Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

Emerging Market investors are facing a 'four-headed risk monster' including geopolitical tension, AI uncertainty, Federal Reserve policy, and looming US tariffs. Despite these pressures, EM assets show resilience due to the expected timeline and potential exemptions for new trade measures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.EM investors are navigating four layers of uncertainty: geopolitics (US-Iran tensions), AI boom sustainability, Fed policy, and new US tariff threats.
• 2.The US has proposed new tariffs (10% to 12.5%) targeting various trading partners, including China, India, Brazil, and multiple EU/UK nations, based on forced labour probes.

Table of Contents

• Overview
• Main strategies
• Performance of the main EM asset classes
• Global EM: four layers of uncertainty
• EMEA: Poland should continue to keep rates stable
• Asia: is the punchbowl running dry?
• Asia strategy: is the punchbowl running dry?
• China: uneven recovery and policy caution
• India: RBI on hold in June
• Thailand: BoT suggests patience amid rising inflation
• Korea: hawkish BOK, NVIDIA's visit, local elections
• Philippines: BSP to hike in June to target inflation
• Trade ideas
• Interest rates: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• FX: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• CACIB EM portfolio flow indexes
• Calendar
• Economic forecasts
• Exchange rate forecasts
• Policy rate forecasts
• Emerging Markets Research advanced tools
• Red Mount Analytics

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