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Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank Research Hub

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank’s (CACIB) recent research highlights a complex global macro environment dominated by geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation. The bank identifies the US-Iran conflict as a primary catalyst, driving the 10Y US Treasury term premium to 90bp and influencing Eurozone energy costs. Consequently, CACIB has adjusted its US rate outlook, forecasting an extended Fed hold through 2026 with potential rate cuts delayed until Q2 2027 as the bias shifts toward potential hikes. Within the Eurozone, the bank maintains a preference for short inflation positions, specifically in OATei and BTPei breakevens, noting that the market is underestimating energy curve backwardation. FX research remains centered on the 'USD exceptionalism' narrative and tactical opportunities identified by the FAST FX model, such as short NOK/SEK trades. Additionally, CACIB closely monitors G10 policy divergence and political instability, particularly the leadership crisis in the UK and its impact on the GBP. Overall, the institution’s strategy emphasizes identifying curve mispricings through butterfly analysis and managing exposure to sticky core inflation.

13 reports available

FX Risk Index Investors Remain Confident

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·Jun 3, 2026

The CACIB FX Risk Index has fallen to a two-year low of -0.7343, signaling strong investor confidence despite the US-Iran impasse. Sentiment is bolstered by hopes for a Strait of Hormuz resolution and the ongoing rally in AI-related stocks.

Playing Ranges

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·Jun 2, 2026

A geopolitical risk-off event has led to a bear flattening of EUR rates, increasing expectations for ECB tightening. Analysts recommend selective curve positioning, specifically Bund ASW steepeners, amidst a heavy week of sovereign bond supply.

Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·Jun 5, 2026

Emerging Market investors are facing a 'four-headed risk monster' including geopolitical tension, AI uncertainty, Federal Reserve policy, and looming US tariffs. Despite these pressures, EM assets show resilience due to the expected timeline and potential exemptions for new trade measures.

Fast FX: Buy EUR/JPY

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·Jun 1, 2026

Crédit Agricole's FAST FX model has entered a long EUR/JPY position targeting 189.71, citing a Z-score undervaluation of 1.5 standard deviations. The trade is driven by movements in peripheral Eurozone bond spreads and relative equity market performance.

Inflation-Linked Weekly: Unimpressed by Core Inflation

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·Jun 3, 2026

Eurozone May inflation rose to 3.19% but slightly missed forecasts, while PPI data suggests limited near-term pass-through to consumer goods. The report argues market inflation fixings for late 2026 are too high compared to energy futures and the bank's moderate core inflation scenario.

FX Weekly: Half-Time Predictions Or Why It May Be Time To Get Real

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·May 29, 2026

The report highlights a shifting focus from nominal to real interest rate spreads as the primary G10 FX driver in H2 2026. Key risks include the US-Iran geopolitical standoff and impending UK political leadership changes affecting GBP volatility.

Divergence of Inflation Shocks and AI Benefits

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·May 28, 2026

US Rate Forecast Update

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·May 25, 2026

Closing Short NOK/SEK Trade for Profit

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·May 25, 2026

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