Report Type

Rates Strategy Research Hub

Finvaulta tracks 385 Rates Strategy reports, updated through October 14, 2026. Latest: Mortgage Rates Reach 7.4%: An Affordability Headwind, Not a Housing Market Breaker.

Institutional research on Rates Strategy covering government bonds, macro, derivatives, and foreign exchange, from ING, Mizuho Securities, Goldman Sachs, and SEB. Finvaulta indexes each report with a summary, key figures and its original publication date.

Finvaulta is an independent research collection; views and forecasts belong to the named report issuers.

Latest research

Mortgage Rates Reach 7.4%: An Affordability Headwind, Not a Housing Market Breaker

Goldman Sachs·Oct 14, 2026

While US mortgage rates have climbed to 7.4% on the back of rising 10-year Treasury yields, Goldman Sachs expects home prices to stay supported due to a persistent 3–4 million unit housing shortage and steady labor market conditions. Buyers continue to adapt to affordability pressures through larger down payments and reduced discretionary spending rather than withdrawing from the market entirely.

Compare with the previous edition (Sep 18, 2026)

If You Want a Trade After the Sep CPI Data, Bet That the Dec Hike Is 50 Rather Than 25

TS Lombard·Oct 14, 2026

Following the September CPI release, Steve Blitz argues that markets are mispricing the December FOMC meeting by expecting only a partial 25 bp hike. With base inflation set to accelerate as rents firm and employment lags take effect, traders should bet on a 50 bp rate hike rather than 25 bp.

Higher Ground

Rabobank·Oct 13, 2026

Rabobank analyzes the surge in the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.00%, concluding that while the climb to 5.00% was driven by Fed rate hikes and real economic resilience, the push above 5.00% reflects widening term premia from sovereign debt supply concerns. Yields are expected to consolidate sideways near 5.20% through late 2026 before easing modestly toward 5.00% by end-2027.

A Fat Cat in a Small Door

Convexity Maven·Oct 13, 2026

For the first time since 2007, the nearly $200bn US Treasury Bond futures contract has become significantly negatively convex due to the activation of the delivery option. As yields approach 6%, pro-cyclical duration extension and hedge-selling create a self-reinforcing 'Convexity Vortex'.

What's Priced In?

SEB·Oct 13, 2026

This report summarizes market-implied policy rate expectations as of October 13, 2026, for the Riksbank, Norges Bank, and G10 central banks. Market pricing reflects higher rate paths for the Scandinavian central banks than projected by either the central banks themselves or SEB.

Compare with the previous edition (Sep 30, 2026)

US Midterm Elections and Yen Rates

Mizuho Securities·Oct 13, 2026

Mizuho examines the yen rates outlook ahead of the November US midterm elections, arguing that a Republican 'red trifecta' would prompt twist-steepening across the JGB curve. Meanwhile, reports of an autumn supplementary budget in Japan should have minimal technical impact on FY2027 issuance.

Compare with the previous edition (Sep 28, 2026)

Selected research

Selected for relevance; publication dates show when each report was written.

US Rates Weekly: Pension Plan for 20s?

Citi·Oct 9, 2026

Citi remains neutral on duration and curve slope, positioning for the FOMC to keep rates unchanged in October while targeting long-end supply reductions via 10s20s spread steepeners. In relative value, the team recommends shorting EUR 6m1y vol against long SOFR Blues convexity and maintaining short 2y breakevens hedged with gasoline.

Global Rates Weekly: License to Steepen

Bank of America·Oct 9, 2026

BofA argues that markets are underpricing the probability of an October FOMC rate hike, and absent hawkish central bank action, resilient growth will drive global yield curve steepening. The report recommends paying October FOMC OIS, initiating short 3m2y EU vs US vol, and positioning for shorter WAM via long 20Y butterfly and UK T-bill expansions.

Hike Cycle Lessons for the US Rates Curve

Goldman Sachs·Oct 9, 2026

Following the resumption of G10 rate hikes after the war in Iran, historical cycle analysis indicates US yields will peak once core inflation moderation is confirmed. With the US curve's post-hike steepening acting as an outlier, the 5-10y belly offers the most attractive value for outright long positions.

Bonds: Where Do Yields Go from Here?

TS Lombard·Sep 30, 2026

TS Lombard argues that the breakout in global bond yields reflects higher policy rate expectations driven by energy price shocks and macro resilience rather than sovereign fiscal risk, hyperscaler debt crowding out, or Yen carry trade unwinds. Investors should close bond shorts but avoid treating this selloff as a buying opportunity, as compressed term premia and tight labor markets leave yields biased to the upside.