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Rates Strategy Research Hub

Current global rates strategy reflects a significant divergence in policy trajectories, with New Zealand and Australian markets pricing in hikes to 3.15% and 4.26% while the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut toward a 3.14% floor. In the US, Treasury refunding sizes are currently maintained, but expectations for gradual coupon auction increases starting in late 2026 have led to tightening swap spreads and focused attention on the 2y-7y curve. European bond sentiment remains constructive, highlighted by the Italian-German 10Y spread reaching an 18-year low of 60bp and record demand for Italy’s 15Y bond syndication. Japan’s 30y JGB market faces a complex outlook where historically high yields of 3.635% are balanced against fiscal expansion risks and seasonal demand weakness from insurers. Strategy recommendations in the Japanese sector favor asset swaps to capture carry while hedging against interest rate risk stemming from political catalysts. Globally, fiscal expansion concerns continue to drive yield dynamics, ranging from elevated German 30Y yields to shifting risk premiums between Italian and French sovereign debt ahead of the 2027 elections.

100 reports available

30y JGB Auction Preview thumbnail

30y JGB Auction Preview

Mizuho Securities·Jun 12, 2026

This report previews the 30y JGB auction, weighing fiscal headwinds against attractive yields and stabilized interest rate expectations. Analysts see limited near-term room for super-long yield spikes, though fiscal policy remains a key uncertainty.

30y JGB Auction Preview thumbnail

30y JGB Auction Preview

Mizuho Securities·Jun 11, 2026

This report previews the 30-year JGB auction scheduled for June 10, 2026, analyzing fiscal headwinds against expectations for BOJ policy normalization.

30y JGB Auction Preview thumbnail

30y JGB Auction Preview

Mizuho Securities·Jun 10, 2026

This report provides a preview for the upcoming 30y JGB auction, identifying fiscal policy concerns as a headwind while noting that limited BOJ terminal rate upside makes the sector attractive for medium-term holding.

30y JGB Auction Preview thumbnail

30y JGB Auction Preview

Mizuho Securities·Jun 9, 2026

This report previews the 30y JGB auction, noting that while fiscal expansion concerns persist as a headwind, limited upside for super-long yields makes the sector potentially attractive for medium-term holding.

Rates Strategy Weekly thumbnail

Rates Strategy Weekly

Mizuho Securities·Jun 8, 2026

Mizuho anticipates a likely BOJ rate hike in June 2026 despite mixed signals from Governor Ueda. The report also highlights risks from fiscal uncertainty linked to proposed consumption tax cuts.

Global Rates Trader A Higher Floor thumbnail

Global Rates Trader A Higher Floor

Goldman Sachs·Jun 6, 2026

The report highlights a shift to a higher floor for US Treasury yields following a strong labor market report. It maintains a cautious view on global rates with specific adjustments to UK Gilt forecasts and monitoring of BoJ hawkishness.

10y JGB Auction Preview

Mizuho Securities·Jun 1, 2026

Bonds: Stuck in the Gulf

UBS·May 25, 2026

Fixed Income Commentary: Improving Super-Long JGB Market Conditions

MUFG·May 27, 2026

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