Crédit Agricole CIB Research Hub

Crédit Agricole CIB’s research emphasizes a cautious approach to G10 FX and macro-thematic positioning amidst evolving geopolitical and inflationary pressures. Proprietary positioning indices highlight that AUD maintains the largest long position despite recent selling, while GBP has returned to being the most significant short following IMM flow activity. Macroeconomic analysis underscores the cooling of energy markets, though core inflation remains a persistent risk with Eurozone and US core targets forecasted at 2.6% and 3.3% respectively. In the Asia-Pacific region, the firm projects a robust GDP recovery for South Korea to 2.6%, supported by semiconductor exports and the phased inclusion of domestic bonds into the FTSE WGBI. Tactically, analysts recommend selling AUD/NZD as interest rate spreads hit 25-year extremes and terms of trade begin to favor New Zealand's export profile. Furthermore, political uncertainty in the UK is viewed through a scenario-based lens, where potential leadership changes within the Labour Party present divergent risks for the British pound's recovery.