Crédit Agricole CIB recommends a short position in AUD/NZD at 1.2156, targeting 1.16, as extreme divergences in rates and positioning reach 15-year limits.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The report recommends selling AUD/NZD at 1.2156 with a target of 1.16, anticipating a return to historical averages.
- 2.Extreme positioning data shows AUD is the largest long and NZD the largest short in G10 FX, suggesting a sharp reversal risk.
- 3.Relative interest rate spreads between Australia and New Zealand are at 25-year highs and appear to be topping out.
Table of Contents
- Sell AUD/NZD: the end of extremes is nigh
- Conclusion
- FX Research advanced tools
- Red Mount Analytics
- Our new interactive data website features:
- Global Markets Research contact details
- Certification
- David Forrester
- Foreign exchange disclosure statement to clients of CACIB
- Additional recommendation obligations
- Valuation and methodology
- MiFID II contact details
- Disclaimer
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Authors
David Forrester
Securities
AUDNZD
Themes
Central Bank DivergenceExtreme Market PositioningTerms of Trade Normalization
Regions
Asia PacificAustraliaNew Zealand