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Berenberg’s research highlights a global economic landscape increasingly strained by geopolitical shocks, primarily the US-Iran conflict and resulting energy-led inflation. This instability has triggered a massive sell-off in bond markets, pushing US Treasury yields to 2007 levels and German yields to a 15-year high. In Japan, despite significant currency interventions exceeding $73 billion, the Yen remains under pressure near historic lows, prompting markets to anticipate a potential 25bp hike from the Bank of Japan. Berenberg analysts express particular concern regarding the Eurozone, characterizing the ECB's expected June rate hike as a potential mistake that could deepen an existing economic contraction. Regional data supports this caution, as the Eurozone Composite PMI has fallen to 47.5, with the services sector reaching a 63-month low amid eroding consumer spending power. While the US economy retains some resilience through long-term fixed mortgages, Berenberg forecasts a lower trend growth of 1.5% due to the impact of tariffs and immigration shifts. Ultimately, the research suggests a pivot in financial conditions from pricing in rate cuts to anticipating hikes, shifting the primary risk profile from inflation back toward global growth constraints.

25 reports available

Ecb Decision: Worse To Come Instead Of One-And-Done thumbnail

Ecb Decision: Worse To Come Instead Of One-And-Done

Berenberg·Jun 11, 2026

The ECB raised interest rates by 25bp in a hawkish move that reflects an overreaction to supply-side inflation, increasing the risk of recession. Despite this, there remains a potential path for the ECB to pause if energy prices continue to decline.

Global Economic Forecasts thumbnail

Global Economic Forecasts

Berenberg·Jun 6, 2026

The global outlook is clouded by the Iran conflict and protectionist US policies, leading to a temporary slowdown in growth. While resilience remains in labor markets, structural issues in China and Europe limit recovery potential.

Germany Where Is The Stimulus thumbnail

Germany Where Is The Stimulus

Berenberg·Jun 6, 2026

The German economy has remained largely stagnant for six years, weighed down by a 12.1% drop in private investment. While substantial public stimulus is now flowing into defense and infrastructure, achieving future growth requires structural reforms to reinvigorate the private sector.

US AI Investment Boom Cannot Sustain Rapid Growth thumbnail

US AI Investment Boom Cannot Sustain Rapid Growth

Berenberg·Jun 11, 2026

The current US investment boom in AI is driven by imported hardware, leading to minimal domestic GDP impact. As consumer spending wanes, growth is expected to slow to 1.5% yoy.

Economic Calendar thumbnail

Economic Calendar

Berenberg·Jun 6, 2026

This report provides an economic calendar for the week of June 7-14, 2026, highlighting major central bank decisions and global data releases. Key events include the ECB policy meeting and US inflation reporting.

Iran War: No Need for an ECB Hike Amid Consumer Misery thumbnail

Iran War: No Need for an ECB Hike Amid Consumer Misery

Berenberg·Jun 4, 2026

The report argues that the Iran war has significantly weakened Eurozone and US growth, and the ECB should refrain from hiking rates as consumer confidence collapses.

ECB Preview: Heading for a Policy Mistake

Berenberg·Jun 9, 2026

Forecasts at a Glance

Berenberg·May 25, 2026

UK Money and Credit

Berenberg·Jun 2, 2026

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