UBS expects the MAS to maintain current policy settings in July, with potential tightening in October amid rising inflation risks. The firm maintains its USDSGD forecasts, anticipating a medium-term decline in USD strength.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Expect MAS to keep policy unchanged in July, but likely to tighten in October due to inflation risks.
- 2.USDSGD forecasts maintained at 1.26, 1.25, 1.25, and 1.24 through June 2027.
- 3.Expect USD strength to fade; Fed rate hike expectations are overly aggressive.
Table of Contents
- CIO View: USDSGD
- CIO Forecast- USDSGD
- SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) versus policy band
- Investment implications
- USD looks prone to profit-taking, given stretched net-long speculative positioning
- Appendix
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Authors
Teck Leng TanDominic Schnider
Securities
USDSGDAUDSGD
Themes
InflationMonetary Policy
Regions
Asia PacificSingaporeUnited StatesAustralia