UBS
July 1, 2026
US Economic Perspectives: No USMCA Renewal
Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsIndustrialsOther
The United States has decided not to renew the USMCA in its current form, opting instead to engage in further negotiations. While the treaty remains in force for now, the lack of renewal introduces economic uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US has declined to renew the USMCA in its current form, leading to a period of protracted negotiations.
- 2.The existing agreement remains in force pending resolution of issues, with formal reviews continuing.
- 3.Ongoing uncertainty regarding the trade agreement may negatively impact investment and consumer confidence.
Table of Contents
- No renewal, but ongoing talks instead
- What comes next?
- Economics
- Required Disclosures
- Analyst Certification
- UBS Global Research Disclaimer
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Authors
Abigail WattRafael De La FuenteJonathan PingleAndrea CasaverdeAmanda WilcoxJalen Nichols
Themes
Geopolitical UncertaintyTrade Policy
Regions
North AmericaUnited StatesCanadaMexico