TS Lombard
July 6, 2026
How Ai Affects Inflation
Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsEnergyInformation Technology
This report examines the inflationary impact of AI, arguing that the current buildout phase is inflationary rather than disinflationary. It contends that resource-heavy investment currently outweighs productivity gains, requiring careful monetary policy.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Contrary to the 'Warsh thesis' suggesting AI is disinflationary via productivity gains, current evidence shows AI buildout phase is inflationary due to supply chain capacity constraints.
- 2.Algorithmic pricing is currently being utilized by firms to maximize responsiveness to demand rather than reducing prices for consumers, effectively steepening the Phillips curve.
Table of Contents
- Macro Picture - Chart Story
- How AI Affects Inflation - Explainer
- The AI footprint in official US inflation statistics
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Dario Perkins
Themes
AI-induced inflationMonetary policy and interest rates
Regions
GlobalUnited States