TS Lombard Research Hub

TS Lombard’s recent research highlights the profound impact of the 'Iran shock' and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global markets, particularly regarding European equity performance and energy volatility. Despite these macro headwinds, a significant thematic rotation into AI infrastructure and semiconductors has created a 'European Nasdaq' effect, with AI-related baskets accounting for over two-thirds of the Stoxx 600’s gains since April. Within the energy sector, China’s strategic electrification and reserve accumulation have temporarily capped oil prices below $200, though a return to inventory rebuilding remains a looming upside risk. In emerging markets, India faces intensifying inflationary pressures as fuel pump prices rose 8-9%, likely pushing CPI above the RBI’s 4% target while the rupee hits decade lows. Conversely, the firm argues that hawkish Bank of England expectations are overpriced, citing UK headline inflation cooling to 2.8% and slowing services inflation. Finally, a structural analysis of the falling wage share suggests a bullish outlook for the bond market as equilibrium interest rates and labor dynamics diverge.