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TS Lombard

May 29, 2026

China's Mystery Oil Supplies

Macro ThematicCommoditiesMacro Economic IndicatorsEnergyMaterials

China's reduced crude oil imports, driven by strategic stockpiling, electrification, and high petrochemical inventories, are currently suppressing global oil prices. However, a future shift to inventory rebuilding will likely turn China from a price deflator into a global price inflator.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.China's collapse in oil imports is the primary factor preventing global oil prices from reaching $200 a barrel despite the Iran conflict.
  • 2.China has transitioned from an oil importer to an energy surplus state via rapid electrification of transportation and energy production.
  • 3.A massive commercial inventory of petrochemicals and oil-derived products has enabled Chinese industry to operate despite reduced crude consumption.

Table of Contents

  • China Watch - Chart Story
  • CHINA'S MYSTERY OIL SUPPLIES
  • China has plenty of oil
  • China Set to Tackle Petrochemicals Overcapacity With Overhaul
  • Disclaimer

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Authors

Rory Green

Securities

Crude OilXAU

Themes

Energy Security and Self-SufficiencyStrategic Commodity StockpilingGlobal Market Impact of Chinese Demand

Regions

Asia PacificMiddle EastChinaRussia