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TS Lombard

July 2, 2026

Ai Is Not Deflationary

Macro ThematicEquitiesMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsIndustrialsInformation Technology

The report argues that AI is not inherently deflationary and that the current infrastructure buildout is currently inflationary. Consequently, the Fed may need to pursue tighter monetary policy as labor market strength persists.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The AI infrastructure buildout is currently acting as an inflationary stimulus rather than a deflationary force.
  • 2.US interest rates are expected to rise as the labor market reaccelerates, challenging the thesis that AI justifies monetary easing.

Table of Contents

  • Productivity Fairytale
  • Booms and Bottlenecks
  • Bonds vs Equities
  • 1. Productivity Fairytale
  • 2. Booms and Bottlenecks
  • 3. Bonds vs Equities

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