A Regime-Proof Portfolio

The report argues that the macro investment regime has shifted from a low-pressure, cost-minimizing environment to a high-pressure, revenue-chasing system. Investors should favor commodities and broader equity participation over narrow tech-leadership and long-duration bonds.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The macro regime has shifted from an environment of deleveraging and cost-cutting to one where businesses are increasingly rewarded for chasing revenue and expanding capacity.
• 2.Portfolio resilience requires exposure to commodities and commodity-exporting emerging markets, while underweighting long-duration fixed income.
• 3.Investors should transition from identifying tech providers to identifying successful adopters of AI across broader sectors like industrials and infrastructure.

Table of Contents

• A Regime-Proof Portfolio
• Mapping the macro landscape
• From inherited conditions to business behaviour
• High-pressure and low-pressure economies
• Where are we today?
• What kinds of shocks should investors expect?
• The role of policy
• What could go wrong (or right) and send reflationary dynamics into reverse gear?
• A portfolio for a new regime
• Portfolio implications
• Building a robust portfolio
• Expressing conviction
• A different investment regime

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