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Stagflation Research

The current research landscape highlights persistent stagflationary concerns as global markets grapple with elevated energy costs and mounting growth risks. Despite tentative geopolitical de-escalation between the US and Iran, oil prices are expected to remain floor-bound at approximately $90/bbl due to depleted reserves, sustaining inflationary pressures. While central banks like the ECB and Fed remain hawkish in the near term to combat structural labor shortages, research from UBS suggests a transition toward rate cuts in late 2026 as growth eventually slows. This environment has reinforced the role of gold as a critical strategic hedge, with price targets projected as high as $5,500/oz amid US fiscal deficit concerns. Equity markets remain buoyed by AI-driven growth and record buybacks, yet Goldman Sachs warns that record hedge fund leverage of 323% and narrow market leadership create a reflexive environment sensitive to liquidity shifts. Investors are increasingly advised to pivot toward quality short- and medium-maturity bonds to capture yield before the anticipated shift in the interest rate cycle.

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