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AI Capex Research

Current research indicates that AI infrastructure demand remains a primary driver for equity market strength, contributing significantly to a 26% year-over-year earnings growth in Q1 2026. This momentum has prompted revisions to market targets, with the S&P 500 projected to reach 8,000, supported by software gains and hardware innovations like Nvidia’s RTX Spark chip. Beyond mega-cap tech, AI-related capital expenditure is fostering a turnaround in small-cap equities and driving renewed M&A activity within the sector. The capital commitment to this space is further highlighted by high-profile moves such as Anthropic’s IPO filing, even as broader markets face headwinds from sticky inflation and headline PCE at 3.8%. Despite these macroeconomic pressures and rising energy costs, institutional flows remain concentrated in US large-cap products that capture AI growth. Ultimately, the research suggests that while inflationary risks persist, the secular trend of AI capex continues to underpin global equity sentiment and valuation expansions.

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