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JGB Market Research Hub

Finvaulta tracks 26 research reports on JGB, updated through July 15, 2026. Latest: “Japan Long-Term Structure Of The Pension System”.

The JGB market is currently defined by the Bank of Japan's strategic transition toward tapering its monthly purchase schedule, with analysts projecting a reduction to a ¥2 trillion pace by early 2027. This trajectory is intended to align with rising policy rates and mitigate concerns regarding 'debt monetization' while maintaining a healthy market environment where short-term liquidity remains ample. Macroeconomic indicators support this measured approach, as Tokyo's core CPI is expected to cool to +1.8% alongside weakening industrial production, providing a backdrop of relatively benign inflation. Despite the upward pressure on yields, domestic institutional investors, including insurers and regional banks, have emerged as key net buyers in the super-long and medium-term sectors. Conversely, foreign investors have been observed unwinding flattener trades by selling super-long bonds, while trust banks are increasing JGB holdings to rebalance portfolios following equity price gains. Looking toward 2030, researchers suggest the BOJ may eventually need to increase purchases again to maintain a target reserve-to-GDP ratio of approximately 35%. Overall, the market shows signs of adapting to a higher yield environment even as structural shifts in domestic asset allocation begin to influence yen stability.

Featured reports

Japan Long-Term Structure Of The Pension System

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 15, 2026

This report argues that Japan's public pension reserve fund should increase its allocation to domestic government bonds (JGBs) due to inconsistencies between its current aggressive investment strategy and its long-term actuarial requirements.

Japan Reluctance to Issue JGBs and Premature Rate Hikes

Crédit Agricole CIB·May 29, 2026

The report argues that Japan must abandon excessive fiscal austerity and the 60-year JGB redemption rule to finance strategic investment and avoid premature BoJ rate hikes that could stifle recovery.

Usdjpy Yield Differentials

UBS·May 25, 2026

UBS expects the USDJPY to trend lower toward 150 by mid-2027 as narrowing US-Japan yield differentials override headwinds from elevated energy prices. They anticipate the Fed cutting rates while the Bank of Japan continues to hike.

JPY Weekly

MUFG·May 25, 2026

The USD/JPY pair is testing the 160 level as Japan considers a JPY 3 trillion supplementary budget and the US transitions to a new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, amid global inflation concerns.

Japan Focus of the Week

Goldman Sachs·May 22, 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasts a slowdown in Tokyo CPI and a third consecutive monthly decline in industrial production for Japan. They anticipate the Bank of Japan will maintain its current JGB purchase reduction plan through March 2027.

April JSDA OTC Bond Trading Volume

Mizuho Securities·May 22, 2026

This Mizuho Securities report analyzes April 2026 JSDA OTC bond trading data, highlighting a reversal in foreign investor flattener positions and a return of domestic dip-buying in JGBs.

Exploring the BOJ's Future JGB Purchase Path

Goldman Sachs·May 21, 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the BOJ will maintain its current JGB reduction plan through early 2027 and likely hold purchases steady at ¥2 trillion per month thereafter. This strategy balances the need for improved market functioning against fiscal and currency stability risks.

JPY Expect Underperformance

RBC Capital Markets·May 14, 2026

RBC revises its USD/JPY forecasts higher to 160, citing persistent energy import costs and domestic investor reluctance to repatriate funds amidst JGB market volatility.

From Mapping Prices to Mapping Power

Deutsche Bank·Jul 27, 2026

Japan Pension Fund Domestic Capital Expansion

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 10, 2026

Japan: What Is Sanaenomics?

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 19, 2026

All reports

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Rates Govt Bonds FX Bank of Japan USDJPY UST Mizuho Securities

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