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June 18, 2026

Tightening To Resume After Summer

Macro ThematicRates Govt BondsOther

Norges Bank maintained the policy rate at 4.25% while signaling a likely hike in the near future. The central bank raised its peak rate path projection to 4.55% as it continues to battle entrenched inflation.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Norges Bank kept the policy rate at 4.25% but indicated a hike is likely at one of the forthcoming meetings.
  • 2.The rate path peak has been lifted to 4.55% by September 2026, signaling a more restrictive stance.
  • 3.While the base case is a September hike, an August hike remains possible depending on incoming data.

Table of Contents

  • Tightening to resume after summer
  • Key conclusions
  • Inflation still (too) elevated
  • Softer economic activity
  • To conclude

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Authors

Marthe EideErica Dalstø

Securities

Norwegian Policy Rate

Themes

Inflation ControlMonetary Policy Normalization

Regions

EuropeNorway