Riksbank Review

The Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75% in June while signaling a potential for near-term hikes, though market sentiment remained dovish due to excluded geopolitical risk factors. SEB maintains its forecast of unchanged rates throughout 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Riksbank kept the policy rate at 1.75% while signaling a higher probability of a near-term hike.
• 2.The report and Riksbank forecasts do not incorporate recent Middle East developments, leading to a dovish interpretation by the authors.
• 3.SEB maintains its view of an unchanged policy rate through 2026, viewing the Riksbank's long-term rate path increase as gradual.

Table of Contents

• Key points
• Policy conclusions
• Press conference underlined uncertainty, need for vigilance
• Higher inflation forecast in 2027
• Riksbank forecasts on 17 June
• Market reactions

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