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Rabobank

July 6, 2026

When a Toll Isn't a Toll

Daily UpdateCommoditiesRates Govt BondsEnergyIndustrials

Global energy markets are fracturing into competing geopolitical blocs as tensions regarding oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz escalate. Simultaneously, European industrial sectors are struggling against Chinese competition and dependence on American energy.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The global oil market is splitting into geopolitical camps with varying pricing and access terms based on regional alliances.
  • 2.Europe faces de-industrialization risks due to Chinese competition and reliance on US energy and financial systems.
  • 3.Market expectations for Fed rate hikes have pushed out from October to December following weak US employment data.

Table of Contents

  • Market comment
  • Week ahead

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Authors

Benjamin Picton

Securities

10-year US TreasuryBrent Crude

Themes

European De-industrializationGeopolitical fragmentation of commodity markets

Regions

EuropeAsia PacificUnited StatesChinaGermany