Still The Military Base Case

Global markets are facing increasing disruption from geopolitical conflict, energy supply risks, and a shift toward protectionist US trade policies. The report warns that investors should prepare for a 'physical' market reality that defies traditional capital-light growth strategies.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically regarding Iran and Hezbollah, remain a base-case driver for global energy and market instability.
• 2.The US is moving toward a more protectionist 'Fortress North America' trade posture, potentially triggering a decade-long exit from the USMCA pact.
• 3.Global markets are shifting from capital-light growth to a 'physical' focus, with investors struggling as previous safety havens like Gold and Crypto face volatility.

Table of Contents

• Market comment
• Day ahead

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