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Rabobank

July 9, 2026

EUR Reality Check

FX StrategyFXOther

The report evaluates the EUR's diminished momentum following the dissipation of optimism regarding German fiscal reforms. RaboResearch anticipates sideways trading for EUR/USD in the near term.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Optimism surrounding the EUR has faded due to concerns over German fiscal management and weak growth.
  • 2.Market expectations for another ECB rate hike are fully priced in, limiting upside support for the EUR.
  • 3.RaboResearch expects EUR/USD to trade sideways in the short term, with a potential modest upward bias in 3-6 months.

Table of Contents

  • FX Update
  • Disclaimer

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Authors

Jane Foley

Securities

EURUSD

Themes

ECB Monetary PolicyGerman Fiscal Policy

Regions

EuropeGermanyUnited StatesChina