Report published May 11, 2026

FX Daily: US Price Check and Market Implications for May 11, 2026

ING · May 11, 2026

The US Dollar remains strong as Middle East peace hopes fade and markets pivot to Tuesday's US CPI data. Energy shocks and inflation concerns dominate, while the Forint rallies on domestic political shifts.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Middle East ceasefire hopes have faded, shifting market focus to the upcoming US April CPI data.
2.The US Dollar is expected to remain supported by higher oil prices and potential stagflationary shocks.
3.European Central Bank hikes remain likely in June despite poor activity data, providing some floor for EUR/USD.

USD: Little progress in Middle East, focus on inflation
EUR: More consolidation
GBP: PM Starmer tries to save himself
CEE: The forint is riding a wave of optimism
Author

Report data

The highlight of the data calendar this week will be Tuesday's US CPI for April

Metric	Estimate	Context
US CPI (Headline) YoY	3.7%	Expected headline inflation rate vs 3.3% previously.
Oil Price Change	4%	Oil prices gapped up in Asia.
ECB 25bp Hike Probability	82%	Market pricing for an ECB rate hike.
Czech Core Inflation YoY	3.0%	Projected increase from 2.9%.
Poland GDP 1Q26 Flash Estimate	3.8%	Expected slowdown from 4.1%.

Source: ING. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

FX Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on May 11, 2026.

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Authors / Editors

Chris Turner · Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEEFrantisek Taborsky · EMEA FX & FI StrategistFrancesco Pesole · FX Strategist