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February 16, 2026

FX Daily: Still Searching for a Dollar Pulse

Daily UpdateFXMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsFinancialsInformation Technology

The dollar continues to struggle for momentum despite better US macro data, while focus shifts to upcoming UK inflation data and ECB 'eurisation' efforts. Analysts expect short-term downside risks for EUR/USD and a potential March rate cut from the BoE.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The US Dollar is struggling to recover despite improved macro data, as market confidence in the greenback remains low.
  • 2.Short-term valuation for EUR/USD suggests a break below 1.180 is more likely than a rally to 1.20.
  • 3.UK labor and inflation data could pave the way for a Bank of England rate cut in March, weighing on GBP.

Table of Contents

  • USD: Data and stock volatility in focus this week
  • EUR: ECB pushing eurisation
  • GBP: Big data week
  • CEE: Not many reasons to leave the usual ranges

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Authors

Francesco PesoleFrantisek TaborskyChris Turner

Securities

EURUSDNVDAEURGBP

Themes

Dollar DisillusionmentEuropean Economic Sovereignty

Regions

North AmericaEuropeUnited StatesUnited KingdomRomania