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Report published June 4, 2026

FX Daily: Re-Escalation and Data Make USD Sole Winner - ING Research (June 2026)

ING · June 4, 2026

The US dollar is strengthening as a safe-haven asset following US-Iran tensions and robust US economic data. This strength is pushing EUR/USD toward 1.150 and challenging emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The US dollar is finding broad support due to US-Iran military re-escalation and resilient US economic data (ADP and ISM services).
  • 2.EUR/USD is vulnerable to a drop to 1.150 as a lack of progress in Middle East negotiations outweighs hawkish ECB expectations.
  • 3.The Brazilian real is facing headwinds from the strong dollar and US tariff threats, catching up with a hawkish shift in local interest rates.

Table of Contents

  • USD: Stronger and stronger
  • EUR: Looking down
  • BRL: FX plays catch-up with rates
  • CEE: Inflation may decide CNB June rate hike
  • Author

Report data

USD gains broad support on Iran re-escalation and resilient US data

MetricEstimateContext
EUR/USD Target1.150 ratioPotential level if Middle East progress lacks.
Czech May Inflation (Expected)2.3%Down from 2.5% previous.
US Tariffs on Brazil25%Renewed threat impacting BRL.
Source: ING; ING Forecast. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

FX Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on June 4, 2026.

Part of the FX Daily series — view all 70 editions

Looking for the latest edition? ING Think fx daily french risk keeps harming ecb hawks (Oct 6, 2026)

  1. May 28ING-Think-fx-daily-headline-rollercoaster-continues
  2. May 29ING-Think-fx-daily-new-ceasefire-still-many-open-questions
  3. Jun 2ING-Think-fx-daily-markets-reluctant-to-price-in-more-jpy-interventions
  4. Jun 3ING-Think-fx-daily-dollar-support-broadens

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Authors / Editors

Frantisek Taborsky · EMEA FX & FI StrategistFrancesco Pesole · FX StrategistChris Turner · Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE

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