ING
May 22, 2026
FX Daily Iran Fall-Out Coming Home To Roost In EUR/USD
FX StrategyFXMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther
The EUR/USD is facing a new bearish phase driven by poor European activity data and a hawkish Fed outlook. Meanwhile, political turmoil in Turkey is testing TRY carry positions.
Key Takeaways
- 1.EUR/USD is entering a new bearish phase as poor European PMIs suggest stagflationary effects from Middle East tensions are impacting activity.
- 2.Hawkish Fed re-pricing is supporting the USD, with markets now pricing in 20bp of hikes by December.
- 3.Turkish Lira (TRY) is experiencing volatility and carry-trade pressure following a landmark court ruling removing the main opposition leader.
Table of Contents
- USD: Look out for a Waller speech at 4:00pm CET
- EUR: Activity is the weak link
- CHF: EUR/CHF hostage to the ECB
- TRY: Political uncertainty tests carry positioning
- Author
- Disclaimer
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports with a 14-day free trial.
Authors
Chris TurnerFrantisek TaborskyFrancesco Pesole
Securities
EURUSDUSDTRYDXYEURCHF
Themes
Stagflation in the EurozoneCentral Bank DivergenceGeopolitical Spillovers
Regions
EuropeNorth AmericaMiddle EastUnited StatesGermanyTurkey