Think Ahead How Our 2026 Predictions Have Aged

James Smith reflects on ING's 2026 forecasts, noting that while some predictions were accurate, others were impacted by unforeseen volatility. The report highlights resilient US employment, shifts in tariff policy, and a hawkish Fed outlook.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US tariff revenue has declined as the administration shifted toward temporary measures, reducing inflationary pressures.
• 2.US unemployment trends have decoupled from earlier negative expectations; job gains are broadening across more sectors.
• 3.The Federal Reserve remains hawkish under Kevin Warsh, resisting political pressure to cut rates immediately.

Table of Contents

• 2026 in charts - revisited
• Will tariffs fall in 2026? – Answer: Yes (so far...)
• Will US unemployment keep rising? – Answer: No
• Will the Fed bow to political pressure and slash rates? – Answer: No
• Will European industry surge back to life? – Answer: Mixed
• THINK Ahead in developed markets
• THINK Ahead in Central and Eastern Europe
• Key events in developed markets
• Key events in Central and Eastern Europe

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