ING Bank N.V.
July 10, 2026
Rates Spark: Sentiment Looking Through Geopolitical Risks
Rates StrategyCommoditiesEquitiesRates Govt BondsConsumer DiscretionaryEnergy
Risk assets remain optimistic despite geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices. Meanwhile, nominal rates continue to face upward pressure driven by inflation expectations.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Risk assets are showing resilience and looking through geopolitical tensions in Iran, despite the resulting spike in oil prices.
- 2.Higher oil prices are sustaining elevated inflation expectations and upward pressure on nominal rates, particularly at the front end of the curve.
- 3.German Bunds are struggling to maintain their safe-haven status due to structural issues, increased supply, and quantitative tightening.
Table of Contents
- Rates Spark: Sentiment looking through geopolitical risks
- Risk sentiment looking through surge in oil prices already
- More effort needed to not have Bunds safe haven status challenged
- Friday’s events and market view
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Authors
Michiel TukkerBenjamin Schroeder
Securities
German BundsItalian BTPs
Themes
Geopolitical risk decouplingOil-inflation transmission
Regions
EuropeUKGermanyIranJapan
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