ING Bank N.V.
July 10, 2026
FX Daily: Fading Geopolitical Risk, Focus on Rate Differentials
Daily UpdateCommoditiesFXRates Govt BondsEnergy
The dollar remains unchanged as markets disregard geopolitical risks in the Middle East, choosing to focus on interest rate differentials. Strategists remain cautious about these sanguine market expectations.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Markets are choosing to ignore geopolitical risks from US-Iran tensions, focusing instead on rate differentials.
- 2.The US dollar is showing no benefit from the geopolitical re-escalation, as markets fade these concerns.
- 3.The Polish zloty remains bearish following a dovish impulse from the National Bank of Poland.
Table of Contents
- USD: Stuck as markets fade geopolitical risk
- EUR: Don't downplay downside risks
- CAD: Jobs data in focus, BoC to stay cautious
- CEE: Rates repricing points to more zloty weakness
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Authors
Francesco PesoleFrantisek Taborsky
Securities
DXYBrent Crude
Themes
Carry TradeGeopolitical RiskInterest Rate Differentials
Regions
Middle EastEuropeUnited StatesIranJapan
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