Polish Activity Data Slows Further In 2Q But 3.4% Growth Still Achievable For 2026

Polish Q2 2026 activity data indicates a slowdown in retail and construction, but ING maintains its 3.4% GDP growth forecast for the year. The National Bank of Poland is expected to hold interest rates steady due to the absence of significant wage-price spiral effects.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Poland's GDP growth is slowing in Q2 2026, but the annual target of 3.4% remains achievable due to anticipated strong fixed investment.
• 2.The National Bank of Poland is expected to maintain its current interest rate levels as labour market wage pressures remain subdued.

Table of Contents

• Consumer strength moderated further in 2Q26
• Construction output rebounding, but infrastructure activity disappointed
• No signs of second-round effects in the labour market
• National Bank of Poland set to keep rates on hold

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