Aluminium Deficit Persists Despite Easing Middle East Tensions

Despite the easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions, the global aluminium market remains in a significant structural deficit. Supply losses remain in place, and Chinese export growth is insufficient to restore global balance.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global aluminium markets are expected to remain in a deficit of 1.8 million tonnes this year.
• 2.Easing Middle East tensions reduce geopolitical risk premiums but do not restore lost production capacity.
• 3.Chinese exports are at record highs but are insufficient to bridge the global supply gap.

Table of Contents

• Aluminium deficit persists despite easing Middle East tensions
• De-escalation eases risks, not fundamentals
• Lost supply won’t return overnight
• China steps in, but can’t fill the gap
• China's output hits record high
• And exports surge
• Aluminium remains supported
• LME inventories continue to draw

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