Easing Aluminium Supply Risk Prompts Lower Forecasts

ING has lowered its 2026-2027 aluminium price forecasts following a faster-than-expected recovery in Middle Eastern production capacity. While the global market remains in deficit for 2026, the easing supply outlook has prompted a revision of the expected 2026 deficit to 1.2Mt.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Middle Eastern aluminium production is recovering faster than expected, prompting a reduction in the 2026 market deficit forecast from 1.8Mt to 1.2Mt.
• 2.Aluminium price forecasts have been revised lower due to eased supply risks, though the market is expected to remain in deficit for the remainder of 2026.
• 3.Chinese aluminium production reached record levels, but limited spare capacity and high utilization rates suggest China cannot fully offset global supply disruptions.

Table of Contents

• Easing aluminium supply risk prompts lower forecasts
• Supply risks are easing
• Middle East rally unwinds
• Middle East recovery gathers pace
• China boosts exports
• Market balance revised
• Forecasts revised lower
• Revised ING forecasts
• What has changed?

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