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HSBC

July 8, 2026

FOMC Minutes Judgement Required

Macro ThematicRates Govt BondsOther

The July 2026 HSBC report analyzes the June FOMC minutes, noting a debate among policymakers regarding the necessity of future rate hikes to control inflation. HSBC maintains a steady policy rate outlook for 2026 and 2027 despite market expectations for hikes.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.June FOMC minutes showed divided views on the need for future rate hikes given inflationary concerns versus scenarios where pressures might dissipate.
  • 2.HSBC maintains a forecast that the FOMC will hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% through 2026 and 2027.
  • 3.Labor market conditions remain generally stable and balanced according to recent FOMC minutes.

Table of Contents

  • FOMC minutes
  • Judgement required
  • United States
  • Another “family fight” looms in July
  • FOMC views on the labor market

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Authors

Ryan Wang

Securities

Federal Funds

Themes

InflationLabor MarketMonetary Policy

Regions

North AmericaUnited States