H2 Outlook Multi-Asset Direction

HSBC maintains a bullish 'risk-on' stance entering H2 2026, keeping a maximum overweight allocation to global equities. The strategy involves rotating from EM equities to eurozone equities while anticipating an eventual softening of US economic exceptionalism in late Q3.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Maintain maximum overweight stance in equities heading into H2.
• 2.Expect a partial unwind of US exceptionalism by late-Q3, favoring a rotation toward US rates from European duration.
• 3.Closing overweight position in EM equities due to heightened volatility and AI spending concerns; raising eurozone equities to overweight.

Table of Contents

• H2 outlook
• Multi-Asset Direction
• Asset allocation
• Global asset allocation
• Multi-Asset Chart Pack
• Evolution of active weights in our tactical asset allocation
• Sentiment/Positioning (1)
• Sentiment/Positioning (2)
• Sentiment/Positioning (3): UST sentiment and positioning
• Multi-Asset Regime Radar
• Machine Learning Model Updates (1)
• Machine Learning Model Updates (2)
• SHAP values for pullback models
• Disclosure appendix

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