The FX market remains largely unmoved by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, while the NZD outperforms on hawkish central bank commentary. Meanwhile, the Fed remains divided, awaiting further data to guide future policy decisions.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Geopolitical risk in the Middle East has had minimal impact on FX markets, reflecting a market assumption of a diplomatic resolution.
- 2.The RBNZ's hawkish stance and strong domestic manufacturing data have supported the NZD despite broader geopolitical tensions.
- 3.Fed policy remains data-dependent and divided, with the market pricing in 35bp of hikes.
Table of Contents
- Currencies
- Disclaimer & Disclosures
- 2026 Extel Global Fixed-Income Research Survey
- Disclosure appendix
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Authors
Daragh MaherClyde WardleTom Wookey
Securities
NZDUSD
Themes
Geopolitical RiskMonetary Policy
Regions
GlobalUnited StatesNew ZealandChile