Gold prices have retreated from record highs following a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy and a strengthening USD. Despite this, HSBC maintains a positive outlook, supported by structural fiscal and geopolitical risks.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Gold prices have fallen more than 20% from their January record high of USD5,450/oz due to a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy and a stronger US dollar.
- 2.HSBC has lowered its 2026 and 2027 average gold price forecasts to USD4,560/oz and USD4,925/oz, respectively.
- 3.Despite near-term volatility and a hawkish Fed, long-term structural factors including global fiscal deficits and geopolitical risks provide a potential price floor for gold.
Table of Contents
- Executive summary
- Monetary policy, the USD and debt
- Geopolitics, uncertainty, and trade
- Central banks
- Investor demand
- Physical demand
- Bars and coins
- Mine supply
- Recycling supply
- Hedging supply
- Conclusion
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports with a 14-day free trial.
Authors
James Steel
Securities
XAU
Themes
Fiscal Deficits & Sovereign DebtGeopolitical UncertaintyMonetary Policy & Fed Independence
Regions
GlobalUnited StatesChinaIndia