US January CPI: Another Weak Release

US January CPI came in at 2.39% YoY, slightly below consensus, with soft underlying shelter data offsetting a sharp rise in volatile airfare prices.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US January Headline CPI (2.39% YoY) and Core CPI (2.50% YoY) both came in slightly below consensus expectations.
• 2.While airfares provided a volatile boost to core inflation, stickier components like Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), primary rents, and car insurance were on the weaker side.
• 3.Market pricing for 2026 Fed easing increased slightly to approximately 60bp following the release, up from 58bp.

Table of Contents

• Today's CPI
• Context
• Big picture
• Services
• Core goods
• Food
• Energy
• PCE and Fed
• Detailed numbers for January 2026
• Recent inflation publications
• Red Mount Analytics
• Global Markets Research contact details

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