Crédit Agricole CIB
May 11, 2026
US CPI April 2026 Preview
Market ReportMacro Economic IndicatorsCommoditiesEnergyConsumer Staples
Crédit Agricole CIB expects US April headline CPI to surge to 3.77% YoY, driven by a double-digit monthly rise in motor fuel prices and a technical jump in shelter components.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US headline CPI is expected to accelerate significantly to 3.77% YoY in April, up from 3.26% in March.
- 2.Energy prices, particularly motor fuels (+11-12% MoM NSA), are a primary driver of the headline acceleration.
- 3.Headline CPI is projected to peak around 4.2% YoY in May 2026 before declining to 3.5% by year-end.
Table of Contents
- Summary of the April CPI preview
- Beyond April
- Services
- Core goods
- Food
- Energy
- PCE and the Fed
- Our CPI forecasts up to 2027
- Our CPI forecasts in detail (1/2) - food, energy, core goods
- Our CPI forecasts in detail (2/2) - services
- Contributions to YoY CPI
- Services CPI, selected components
- Core goods CPI, selected components
- Food CPI, selected components
- Energy CPI, only five components
Document Preview
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Authors
Jean-François PerrinNicholas Van Ness
Securities
US CPI IndexManheim Used Vehicle Value Index
Themes
Energy-driven InflationMethodological Measurement BiasCore Goods Tariff Normalization
Regions
North AmericaUnited States