Gbp Back To The Future

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The report highlights risks to the GBP from a potential UK leadership contest while noting that EUR/USD remains depressed due to hawkish Fed expectations. It also signals potential near-term moderation for USD/CAD following technical overbought signals.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Potential resignation of PM Keir Starmer and a leadership contest in the UK create downside risk for the GBP.
  • 2.FX investors are prioritizing hawkish Fed policy over geopolitical stabilization in the Middle East, weighing on EUR/USD.
  • 3.USD/CAD technicals show extreme overbought conditions (14-day RSI), suggesting potential for near-term spot moderation.

Table of Contents

  • GBP: back to the future
  • Asia overnight
  • EUR/USD: rate differential matters more than risk sentiment
  • CAD: fighting this deflated feeling
  • Open trade recommendations
  • Key events
  • FX Research advanced tools
  • Red Mount Analytics
  • Global Markets Research contact details
  • Certification
  • Disclaimer

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Authors

Valentin MarinovDavid ForresterAlexandre Dolci

Securities

USDJPYEURUSDUSD/CAD

Themes

Political instability in the UKHawkish Fed policy divergenceGeopolitical risk in Middle East

Regions

North AmericaEuropeMiddle EastUnited StatesUKCanada