USD Enduring Appeal

The report maintains a constructive view on the USD, driven by US economic resilience and a hawkish Fed, despite a temporary cooling of energy prices following a US-Iran ceasefire.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire MoU, temporarily dampening energy prices and USD safe-haven demand.
• 2.Despite near-term volatility, the report maintains a bearish outlook on EUR/USD due to rate differentials and growth concerns.
• 3.The USD remains supported by hawkish Fed expectations following the June policy meeting and resilient capital inflows into US technology stocks.

Table of Contents

• USD: enduring appeal
• FX and gold outlook
• G10 FX Portfolio
• FX Focus
• 60 days to save the world
• Still bearish EUR/USD
• Week ahead: key themes & trades
• FX Positioning Update
• FAST FX Fair Value Model Update
• FX Fair Value Model Update
• FX Risk Index

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