EUR From An Anti-Dollar To The Collateral Damage Of Geopolitics

The report highlights that the EUR continues to act as 'collateral damage' to global geopolitics, facing structural headwinds. Analysts maintain a bullish stance on the USD due to resilient US economic performance and favorable capital flows.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The EUR continues to trade as collateral damage of global geopolitical risks.
• 2.The ECB's near-term rate hike is largely priced in, with forward guidance being the key focus.
• 3.US dollar exceptionalism and flow backdrops remain supportive of a bullish USD view.

Table of Contents

• EUR: from an ‘anti-dollar’ to the collateral damage of geopolitics
• FX and gold outlook
• G10 FX Portfolio
• CACIB FX Volatility Monitor
• Week ahead: key themes & trades
• Short-term fair value charts
• FX Fair Value Model Update
• FX Risk Index
• Key releases in the week ahead
• Exchange rate forecasts
• Interest rate forecasts – developed countries

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