Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

This report covers the weekly performance and strategic outlook for Emerging Markets, highlighting shifting central bank stances in Poland and Indonesia, and geopolitical risks surrounding the USMCA.

Key Takeaways

• 1.EM FX remains slightly constructive despite geopolitical uncertainty, as Fed hawkishness is perceived to be currently overpriced.
• 2.Poland's NBP is shifting toward a dovish stance as inflation (2.5% CPI YoY in June) aligns with central bank targets, leading to an expectation of no rate hikes for the remainder of 2026.
• 3.USMCA renegotiations between the US and Mexico will likely extend beyond 2026, creating ongoing uncertainty for nearshoring investments.

Table of Contents

• Overview
• Main strategies
• Performance of the main EM asset classes
• EMEA: Poland’s NBP shifting from hawkishness to dovishness as inflation declines
• Asia: tech still in the driving seat
• Indonesia: foreign flows matter for BI's rate path
• Korea: inflation above 3% to support BOK's rate hike
• Taiwan: July dividend season
• Latam: USMCA becomes subject to annual review after the missed deadline
• Trade ideas
• Interest rates: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• FX: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• CACIB EM portfolio flow indexes
• Calendar
• Economic forecasts
• Exchange rate forecasts
• Policy rate forecasts
• Emerging Markets Research advanced tools

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial