Inflation-linked Weekly

This report provides a weekly debrief on Eurozone and US inflation, highlighting downside surprises in Eurozone HICP data and adjusting US CPI forecasts due to lower energy prices. It also discusses upcoming technical factors affecting European linker markets and provides updated trade recommendations.

Key Takeaways

• 1.June headline HICP for the Eurozone is tracked at 2.77% YoY, marking a downside surprise compared to market consensus of 3.0%.
• 2.The ECB has seen market pricing for future hikes drop significantly, moving from 1.25 hikes to 0.95 expected by year-end.
• 3.US CPI forecasts have been marginally adjusted downward following a decline in energy prices, with core CPI expected slightly below 2.9% by year-end.

Table of Contents

• EUR inflation analysis
• EUR inflation strategy
• US inflation analysis
• Inflation trade recommendations
• EUR and FR Inflation forecasts
• Eurozone HICP contributions
• EUR, next HICP-CPI releases
• EUR linker auctions
• EUR Analytics
• US CPI forecasts
• US CPI contributions
• US, next CPI releases
• US TIPS Analytics
• Recent inflation publications

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