Crédit Agricole CIB
May 15, 2026
Emerging Market Weekly Pulse
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Crédit Agricole CIB highlights a shift in market focus toward US economic resilience and AI investment, prompting hawkish pivots in EM central banks such as the SARB and Bank Indonesia.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Investor focus is shifting from geopolitics to US economic resilience and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes driven by AI investment and fiscal stimulus.
- 2.The SARB in South Africa is turning hawkish due to energy price shocks; rate hikes of 25bp each are now expected in May and July to reach 7.25%.
- 3.Macroeconomic forecasts for Taiwan and South Korea have been significantly upgraded due to the AI-fuelled semiconductor boom.
Table of Contents
- Overview
- Main strategies
- Main changes to our forecasts
- EMEA: SARB getting more hawkish
- Asia: riding the AI wave
- Latam: the case for monetary policy tightening is building in Peru
- Trade ideas
- Interest rates: what's priced in vs our forecasts
- FX: what's priced in vs our forecasts
- CACIB EM portfolio flow indexes
- Calendar
- Economic forecasts
- Exchange rate forecasts
- Policy rate forecasts
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Authors
Sébastien BarbéXiaojia ZhiOlga Yangol
Securities
South African Repo RateMSCI EM USDUSD/IDR
Themes
AI-Driven Macro MomentumGeopolitical Energy Shock TransmissionCentral Bank Credibility and Hawkish Pivots
Regions
AfricaAsia PacificLatin AmericaSouth AfricaChinaTaiwan