Resilient US Labour Market Despite Iran War Uncertainty

The US labor market showed unexpected resilience in April with 115k new jobs and a low 4.3% unemployment rate. This strength, coupled with inflationary pressures from the Iran war, may challenge the Federal Reserve's plans for a June rate cut.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US labour market remains robust with non-farm payrolls increasing by 115k in April, significantly exceeding the 65k consensus forecast.
• 2.Rising energy prices and inflationary pressures from the Iran war may complicate the Fed's planned June rate cut.
• 3.Berenberg maintains its forecast for a 25bp rate cut to 3.25–3.50% in June, contingent on potential de-escalation in the Middle East.

Table of Contents

• MACRO NEWS
• RESILIENT US LABOUR MARKET DESPITE IRAN WAR UNCERTAINTY
• Berenberg Macro View
• Warsh’s rate cut dreams dampened by steady labour market
• First back-to-back advance in nearly a year
• Dual mandate, only one problem
• Disclaimer
• Remarks regarding foreign investors
• United Kingdom
• United States of America
• Copyright

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